covering federal politics
Mind the Generation Gap
In seven days, voters will run the gauntlet of volunteers distributing how-to-vote cards, head into the polling booth and fill out their ballot papers.
Opinion polls show Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Opposition Leader Tony Abbott are neck-and-neck in the contest and the Greens are on the brink of securing the balance-of-power in the Senate in their own right. In the lead-up to polling day, the contenders will set up camp in marginal seats and make their last-ditch pitches to swinging voters.
The Canberra Times has asked members of the Y, X and Baby Boomer generations to share their thoughts on the looming election.
Australian National University students Tully Fletcher, 24, Sue-Lin Wong, 21, and Sebastien Willis, 22, are bright and articulate members of Generation Y with firm ideas about the election.
They aren’t impressed. Fletcher describes the campaign as “uninspiring’’. Wong yearns for more “robust debate’’. Willis is “extremely disappointed’’ with the major parties’ lack of focus on policy.
Fletcher is most concerned about climate change which is the “issue for our generation’’, Australia’s role in the Asia-Pacific region and education, particularly the inadequacy of student income support and lack of affordable housing.
“The financial pain at the moment is particularly acute,’’ Fletcher says.
He believes there has been no serious discussion about foreign policy in this campaign. But Labor had the “best possible go’’ at addressing the climate change issue and did “a lot of work’’ on education in its first term.
Wong is concerned about education especially talk that the Liberals support offering university places to full-fee-paying domestic students, climate change and the “scare campaign’’ about asylum-seekers waged by both major parties.
Fletcher feels the same, pointing out “The Easy Beats met each other at what used to be Villawood Migrant Hostel. The way I see it is every refugee could be a rock star or at the very least a great contributor to the Australian community.’’
Willis wants a sharper focus on environmental issues including tackling climate change, ending logging in old growth forests and dealing with the parlous state of the Murray-Darling Basin. Equitable access to education and investment in infrastructure – including transport, rail, communication and the National Broadband Network – are also important to Willis who believes Labor is ahead on both fronts by default.
Fletcher will vote for Labor. Wong will back the Greens.
“I’m just so uninspired by both the major parties and climate change is something that I’m so concerned about,’’ Wong says.
“I would say climate change is by far my greatest concern and I think the Greens represent me best on that. I would be just so ashamed to live in a country with Tony Abbott as our prime minister.’’
Willis – who will also vote Greens – thinks Abbott and Gillard are holding back.
“What’s going on if he’s not prepared to submit his genuine ideas to debate? I’d like to hear Julia Gillard’s genuine ideas as well. I hope there would be some that fall a little bit outside the mainstream than what’s been coming out of her mouth for the past few years,’’ Willis says.
Community sector workers Chris Wagner, 35, and Brendan Maher, 33, are members of Generation X who are raising families and are concerned about the spiralling cost of living.
When asked for his thoughts on the election, Maher’s “honest answer’’ is that “I wish it was over’’. He likens the campaign to reality television show and condemns the coverage by some sections of the media.
Wagner is also “absolutely appalled’’ by some media outlets that are running opinion masquerading as reportage.
“I think the media has paid too much attention to the circus and the sideshows and not enough on candidates and the policies,’’ Wagner says.
Wagner believes it is a boring campaign dominated by fear.
“I find it ironic that one party has been talking about fear and smear when both parties have been focussed on fear and smear,’’ according to Wagner who believes the campaign is too stage managed and the leaders are shying away from showing the real selves.
Maher’s is concerned about job security for public servants, saying many of his friends work in the bureaucracy. Investment in mental health services, tackling cost of living pressures and dealing with housing affordability are also really important to Maher who lives with his partner and three stepchildren.
“You don’t get any change from $20 when you buy three beers,’’ Maher quips.
“Parallel to that, our supermarkets and our banks and our major companies are always seems to be announcing enormous profits at the expense of the cost of living.’’
Wagner – who is married with one child – is also worried about the rising cost of living and wants stricter regulation of banks but believes political leaders lack the courage.
“I think both parties are scared to do anything about it because they’re a powerful lobby group and I think that’s disappointing. You want to see bravery from your potential political leaders,’’ Wagner says.
Wagner is extremely disappointed with major parties’ approach to asylum seekers, saying any parent’s instinct is to “do anything’’ to ensure their child lives in a safe place.
“When it comes to children, we need to do everything to provide children with a safe environment and I don’t care where they come from or how they get here,’’ Wagner says.
Wagner decided who to support before the campaign started. Maher is still considering the options but the red-head jokes he may be swayed if a party promises to “subsidise sunscreen for Rangas’’.
Geoff Moore, 62, Roger Pilkington, 51 and Ruth Baussmann, 60, are ultra-fit Baby Boomers just like Abbott. The trio are members of the ACT Veterans’ Athletic Club and usually run six days a week.
In this election campaign, Moore thinks Gillard and Abbott are “trying to be all things to all people. They’re showing some of their strengths and some of their weaknesses and they’re doing a really good job.’’
Pilkington finds the campaign “quite boring’’ and believes the leaders are “saying things on the run’’ rather than outlining a long-term vision for the country.
Baussmann agrees, saying Abbott and Gillard are “knocking each other instead of moving forward’’ with a plan to improve the lot of her children and grandchildren.
Moore will cast his vote based on which party has the better plan for a National Broadband Network and workplace relations because Work Choices was a “complete stuff-up by the Liberals’’. He thinks these are the only issues where the Liberals and Labor have points of difference.
“I think in the longer term there isn’t going to be a lot of difference between Labor and the Liberals,’’ Moore says.
Pilkington is interested in policies to promote health, housing affordability, invest in infrastructure including an integrated transport network and broadband,
Baussmann rates health, aged care services, education and the environment as important issues.
“If we don’t sort this all out, then our grandchildren and our great grandchildren won’t have a decent place to live,’’ she says.
Baussmann thinks former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd attempted to deal with climate change, tackle problems in the health system and improve the education system but “didn’t follow through’’. She blames the political cycle rather than Rudd, arguing three years isn’t long enough.
Pilkington also believes leaders are forced to rush through things particularly in election campaigns.
“They’re giving a lot of broad outlines of their policies but there’s not the nitty gritty like Abbott’s broadband policy,’’ Pilkington says.
“Julia is just pushing forward what they’ve already done for the last three years without exactly saying what they are going to do for the next three years.’’
Pilkington will vote Labor in the Lower House and is considering supporting the Greens in the Senate. Moore will make up his mind on polling day but is unlikely to put the Greens ahead of Labor and the Liberals on the Senate ballot paper.
Moore says his political views have changed since he was aged in his 20s.
“I was extremely radical at the time. I’m quite conservative now,’’ Moore says.
Pilkington and Baussmann say the world has also radically changed with climate change emerging as an important issue when it wasn’t on the radar decades ago. “We were thinking more about the Vietnam War,’’ Baussmann says.
Given the shared concerns about issues and thoughts on the campaign, it turns out the so-called “generation gap’’ isn’t as wide as some suggest.
Published 14.8.2010
On The Road Again
It was difficult to work out whether Opposition Leader Tony Abbott was running for prime minister or shooting vision for a beer commercial when he visited Mackay.
The central Queensland town's economic survival hinges on mining, fishing and sugar cane. While Abbott didn't swing a cane knife, he did dabble in the other pursuits.
A picture of concentration with his tongue jutting out, Abbott tried to operator mini-excavators. It took four attempts to pick up a basketball but only one to dig up a bucket load of sand. Abbott let out a loud "argh'' when the mini-excavator was turned off before focusing his attention on a big red piece of machinery dubbed the "jaw crusher''. The ultra-fit opposition leader made short work of clambering over the beast and posing for pictures.
Retiring Liberal Senator Nick Minchin looked on. The powerbroker - dubbed the "Godfather'' by some colleagues - is acting as a consigliere on the campaign trail but quips that he is charge of making cuppas and ironing shirts.
Then, Abbott was off to the fish markets, donned a high-visibility vest, apron and gloves, and went to work on 4kg barramundi with the assistance of his 21-year-old daughter Louise. "Make friends with a fish darling,'' Abbott urged his daughter as he wielded the blade more like a butcher than fishmonger. Instructor David Caracciolo suggested Abbott needed more practice and warned the leader that the fish was "not sashimi quality''. Abbott downed a morsel anyway and acknowledged his less than stellar skills, saying "it may not be MasterChef''.
On the campaign trail with Abbott, a considerable amount of time is devoted to photo opportunities - often more time than spent on press conferences or speeches - because strategists are acutely aware that the best snapshots and visions get the best run in the media.
In the days after Abbott participated in the debate with Prime Minister Julia Gillard at the National Press Club in Canberra, the media pack followed him from Brisbane to Sydney to Mackay and back to Sydney.
The typical day starts at 5am and the final destination remains secret until the bus pulls up outside or the plane is preparing to land.
The first stop was a child care centre in Kippa-Ring near Brisbane and wife Margie was in tow. The female-controlled worm turned on Abbott during the leaders' debate so perhaps Margie's unexpected appearance was a reminder that some women are quite fond of the opposition leader or maybe it was designed to lend credibility to his child care policy given his wife runs a centre in Sydney.
It prompted one reporter to ask "Mr Abbott, do you think [you] have an advantage by playing the family card over Ms Gillard given that she is unmarried and has no children?'' Abbott was far from dismissive. "Look, I think families are important. I take them seriously and I think it's very important that both sides of politics have serious policies to address the needs of families,'' he said.
His wife was asked why she had ventured out on to the trail. "Well, because this is an area that I feel very passionate about. Early childhood learning and care is vital and it's an embarrassment that the learning of under fives has not really been acknowledged fully. So an opportunity like this to herald early learning and care, quality care, is an opportunity I couldn't lose. Tomorrow I will be working with 25 little people doing what is really important for me,'' she said.
A day later, Abbott brought along his daughter Louise when we went to Mackay where he promised to halt the process to declare no-fish-zone marine parks and opt for further consultation with affected industries and communities. The policy document was only handed out as Abbott fronted the lectern - a tactic employed by both sides to politics which prevents reporters from doing extensive research beforehand. One scribe remonstrated: "you have strode up to this lectern, you wouldn't tell us anything about your policies until you started speaking. You wouldn't give us a copy of this. Are you afraid that we'll find out more information about it? What's the problem?''
Abbott responded that he was "very happy'' with the policy and "happy'' to take questions on it. The challenge is to ask all the important questions before Abbott ends - usually abruptly - the press conference particularly when there is typically only one per day. Then, it's back on the bus, laptop perched on the knees and a short time to file before the pack is back on the plane bound for the next mystery destination.
Published 31.7.2010
Mystery Tour
Remember mystery flights. You pay the fare and receive advance warning whether to pack swimming togs or thermal underwear. After seatbelts are fastened low and tight across your hips, tray tables are stowed away, seats are in the upright position and the doors are secured for take-off, the flight attendant announces the mystery destination.
For the media pack, the election campaign trail is remarkably similar. As reporters, photographers and camera operators prepare for the next day on the hustings, Labor HQ sends out a text message.
The early evening missive usually provides details on whether to check out of the hotel, whether to dress for warm or cool climates and when the bus leaves. The final destination is usually only revealed once you are on the bus or strapped into the seat on the airplane.
The secrecy is designed to control, leaving little time for political rivals, protesters and pranksters to mobilise to spoil the leader's photo opportunity.
It doesn't stop the media throng trying to guess where we are headed out of curiousity and necessity. Reporters can't file stories or do live crosses when stuck in a plane flying over northern NSW.
The guess-the-next-location game combines conjecture with the snippets of available information. Estimated travelling times and clothing suggestions take on special significance. Although, one scribe only packed a single change of clothes because he believed Prime Minister Julia Gillard would spend a day in Brisbane before returning to Canberra for a cabinet meeting. Cabinet was called off so he spent Sunday afternoon shopping for the essentials.
Gillard's caravan has moved from Canberra to Brisbane to Townsville to Sydney to Brisbane since she called the election a week ago. There was also a brief side trip to Melbourne so Gillard could speak at the farewell dinner for Sharan Burrow who was president of the ACTU until the end of June.
Gillard usually has a few official events - a photo opportunity, press conference and speech. There are babies to kiss, organisations to address, high school students to meet, car engines to inspect and announcements to make.
This part of the program is usually over by mid-afternoon which differs from the frenetic pace set by her predecessor Kevin Rudd when he was campaigning in 2007.
In the first week of this campaign, there have been a few flare-ups behind the scenes.
The first occurred when Gillard travelled to Townsville in far north Queensland. She went to the city to announce $200 million would be carved off the housing affordability program and divvied up between about 15 regional cities to fund infrastructure projects. The investment would support new housing developments in regional cities to ease pressure on the capitals.
As the media contingent waited in a park outside the Gorris family home selected for a prime ministerial visit, a post and photograph appeared on the @JuliaGillard stream on Twitter. ``PM on The Strand in Townsville at Juliette's talking about Building Better Regional Cities with Tony Mooney''. A reporter used the same medium to fire back - ``there's a busload of journos paying to follow you and we weren't told about this. Odd.''
It triggered a robust discussion - between journalists and the prime minister's staff - under the park's gazebo about 30 minutes later. After the press conference was done, the media was back on the bus heading for a coffee shop to down some sustenance and file stories before taking another three-hour mystery flight. Gillard made a surprise appearance and launched a charm offensive.
But the situation turned testy a day later when the media pack was back in Sydney and bound for Richmond High School, which Gillard used as a backdrop for an announcement on trade training.
One of the prime minister's staff advised pooling arrangements would apply - a small selection of the media would be allowed in to observe and capture the appearance and share with the rest of the media outlets that could "stay on the bus''.
Journalists vented their frustration on Twitter. One complained ``Gillard battle bus kicks up at proposed pool arrangements for JG event - say no to stage management''. The protests were louder on the bus.
The staffer blamed the lack of hardhats for the snafu. Apparently, they had asked for 40 but only nine were provided. A compromise was reached but the disquiet spilled over into Gillard's media conference.
A reporter asked Gillard ``are you running an overly stage managed campaign and when will you get out on the streets and in the shopping centres of Australia and start mixing with everyday voters?''
Gillard was taken aback. ``I'm surprised to hear you ask that question actually because I got out on the streets in Townsville yesterday,'' she said.
But the Prime Minister's camp changed tack in Sydney. The battle bus - now with a scrape of red paint after efforts to move forward went awry - made an unexpected detour to Sydney's Little Italy.
Perhaps she just needed a cup of coffee. Perhaps she decided to mingle with unvetted members of the public to counter criticisms that her appearances had been too carefully stage managed so far. She downed a cup of coffee, chatted with the media and posed for pictures with cafe staff before heading back to the car parked on the street outside the mall.
Store owner Maria Saraceno appeared, unexpectedly linked arms with the Prime Minister, and ushered Gillard into her shop called Merchant of Venice. Security officers rushed in after Gillard as the brazen shopkeeper showed off her venetian masks and jewellery. It was only the first act.
After the Prime Minister made it into the car, retired reverend Isobel Bishop started tapping on the window in a bid to have a chat with Gillard. The Prime Minister tentatively opened the Comcar's door - wide enough to hear the woman but narrow enough to stop her jumping in.
Bishop had sent a letter to Gillard, hoping the country's first female PM would draw inspiration from the words. Bishop praised the Prime Minister for ``looking at the big picture'' and for being ``an independent thinker'' but reckoned she had ``stuffed it up'' in her approach to asylum seekers.
The retired reverend had a parting message, ``don't you put me on the box''. But if you are surrounded by a throng of reporters, photographers, cameramen and boom operators, bail up the Prime Minister and criticise one of her policies in an election campaign, the odds are extremely good that you will end up on the box as well as in newspapers and on radio.
As the media relished the unscripted moment, some members of the Prime Minister's entourage were probably still suffering from palpitations.
Published 24.7.2010
'First bloke' breaks new ground
Over a cup of tea at The Lodge a couple of years ago, Therese Rein offered some advice to Tim Mathieson before he became Australia's ''first bloke''.
''I was talking to Therese Rein [wife of then prime minister Kevin Rudd] who does a lot of work with children's charities and she suggested I might do some charity work,'' he said.
''I mentioned it to Julia who said that men's health would be a good way to go.'' This ''Julia'' is Julia Gillard. The couple are breaking new ground as Australia's first female Prime Minister and the country's ''first bloke'' or ''first dude'', two titles bestowed on Mr Mathieson by the media.
People who have worked with the hairdresser-turned-real estate salesman reckon he will be brilliant in his new role.
Mr Mathieson - who bears a striking resemblance to Australian actor and singer Frankie J. Holden - was born and raised in Shepparton, Victoria.
His grandfather was a barber and his father tried out the profession before switching to motor mechanics.
''[Hairdressing] was in my genes,'' he said in an interview with anti-depression group Beyondblue.
''When I was 15, I wanted to be a hairdresser. I opened my own salon in Shepparton. Dealing with people on a one-to-one basis gave me a good insight into how men feel about men and how women feel about men in terms of their health. Many women were very concerned that the men in their lives just didn't want to talk about or even look after their health.''
Mr Mathieson met Ms Gillard in 2004 when he was working as a senior stylist at a salon in Brunswick Street in Melbourne. The first date came two years later. The couple now share a recently renovated home in Altona, Victoria. In 2007, it was reported Mr Mathieson had been involved in a drink-driving accident six years earlier. He acknowledged the incident but stressed no one was hurt when the car hit a fence. The Opposition turned to ridicule when Health Minister Nicola Roxon appointed Mr Mathieson as one of six men's health ambassadors. Nationals senator Barnaby Joyce suggested nepotism and questioned his credentials. According to former Transport Workers Union branch secretary Bill Noonan, who is also one of those men's health ambassadors, Mr Mathieson is passionate about the issue.
Mr Noonan described the Prime Minister's partner as a ''knockabout sort of bloke'' who was also comfortable in a room packed with powerful people.
''He's got a nature, I think, where he can fit in and deal with people I hate to use the expression at all levels,'' Mr Noonan said.
Mr Mathieson has also volunteered his time to help the Australian Men's Shed Association and Kidney Health Australia.
He is a ''great guy'', according to Kidney Health Australia chief executive Anne Wilson.
''He is a positive person to work with. He's always got a smile on his face. He really is committed to being an ambassador for our organisation, which we love about him,'' she said.
Former prime ministers' partners have taken different approaches to the role. John Howard's wife Janette had a low public profile but reportedly wielded considerable power behind the scenes. She was dubbed ''Mrs Prime Minister'' by some. Ms Rein was heavily involved in voluntary work to support indigenous people and people with a disability. The self-made millionaire built a multinational business on finding work for the long-term unemployed but sold the Australian arm of the operation to avoid a conflict of interest when her husband became prime minister. Ms Gillard has already been asked if she has a conflict of interest because her partner works for property developer Ubertas, run by Israel lobbyist Albert Dadon.
''Tim's his own person with his own life, with his own job,'' Ms Gillard said. ''I of course have taken advice; I took it at the time that Tim first took that job, to make sure that I don't sit at a cabinet table or make a decision that would be inappropriate given that he's employed in that way, and I've made all of the necessary declarations and disclosures.
''Now I'm the first woman [Prime Minister], I'm obviously the first person to have a male partner. He's got his own career and own job and I hope that people would understand that that he's got a right to live his life, too.''
Published 18.7.2010
Post-mortem on a PM's overthrow
Several hours before Kevin Rudd's prime ministership was plunged into crisis, retiring Chief Government Whip Roger Price delivered his valedictory speech.
He stressed it was important for politicians to listen to the views of their constituents.
"I have always tried to do that,'' Price said in the House of Representatives.
"Some time ago I was a recipient of some unexpected advice from an environmentalist in a letter dropped in my letter box: Mr Price What are you doing with the manure? It's good for your plants but bad for the people around the area to inhale the rotten smell & also polluting the environment, don't you know that it is damaging the ozone layer, you should know that. You are a politician with no brains. Why don't you get the manure and stick it right up your fat arse you stupid politician.''
Price objected to the crack about the size of his posterior and believed the constituent's suggestion was "somewhat impractical''.
Price described himself as an "early adopter'' of the Member for Griffith, Rudd, and he was in "awe of the tremendous job'' that the Prime Minister - who was toppled about 24 hours later - and his team performed in getting Australia through the global economic crisis.
"I would like to thank the PM and [his wife] Therese for their friendship and for the opportunity to be a small part of the support team,'' Price said.
"I have spent the majority of my time in government and served under three Labor prime ministers, a rare privilege for a Labor member. They say if you want a friend in politics get a dog. I have formed friendships here but I will not out them—and I did it without acquiring a dog.
"As I bid you farewell I hope that I have left the odd footfall and fingerprint to signify that Price was here. If it is said that I was a good bloke, a good Labor man and a good member, I am well satisfied.''
A day later, the retiring MP and the deposed prime minister sat side by side on the backbench as newly sworn-in Prime Minister Julia Gillard fronted for her first question time in the new position.
How did it happen?
One of the key players in the coup, parliamentary secretary Bill Shorten, said he had become "very despondent'' - about the Government's chances of re-election - in the fortnight leading up to the move against Rudd.
"Going around talking to voters, be it in Maribyrnong, be it people in the disabilities sector, people said 'you can't just change your mind on climate change and leave a vacuum'. People were saying, 'we could probably see why mining companies should pay more money but you haven't explained to us the detail of how it would work'.''
In caucus meetings leading up to the move to topple the Rudd, some backbenchers were raising grievances.
One suggested Rudd was overexposed after appearing at a string of hospitals. Others appealed for simple information to help explain the mining tax. Some complained that their constituents were concerned about cost-of-living pressures and the arrival of boats carrying asylum-seekers but the Government was failing to effectively deal with this disquiet in the electorate.
In many cases, these backbenchers were first termers. More experienced members scoffed at suggestions that Rudd's position was under threat. Caucus members wished the Government was in a stronger position in the polls but ''in terms of anyone saying the clever solution is to [change] leadership, I see no sign of it whatsoever,'' one source said.
The statements were publicly backed by senior ministers including Gillard and Treasurer Wayne Swan who acknowledged "there will be some chatter from time to time but the party is 100 per cent behind Kevin Rudd''.
A week later, Rudd's leadership was in peril. Members elected under the Kevin-07 banner - parliamentary secretary Bill Shorten, Victorian Senator David Feeney, South Australian Senator Don Farrell and NSW Senator Mark Arbib - made their move against Rudd which one senior Labor figure called a "political hit''.
The dramatic events unfolded on Wednesday June 23. Shorten has revealed he went to see Gillard during the day. "What has happened with this matter is that she gave it a great deal of serious reflection. It's a serious issue. However, what we didn't want is to see that after an election that Tony Abbott was the Prime Minister of Australia. There's too many things which we've accomplished. Merely because we've got off track and not prepared to look at the need to get back on track with Julia Gillard,'' Shorten said.
It is understood Rudd, Gillard and Foreign Minister met in the prime minister's office before 7pm to discuss asylum-seeker policy. Then, Rudd went to a party to mark Senator Nick Sherry's 20th anniversary in parliament. As Sherry shared some personal reflections, Labor MPs started to leave to room to answer their telephones. Rudd was tipped off by Queensland MP Graham Perrett who had received a text message indicating the leadership challenge was on, went up to the Rudd and urged him to return his office.
The architects of the overthrow - Shorten, Feeney and Farrell - were spotted about the same time eating at a Vietnamese restaurant in Kingston. Government members - from senior ministers to backbenchers - were blindsided and rejected reports that Rudd had lost the support of factional leaders from the right.
"No-one has ever spoken to me about a change of leadership - not even a backbencher gripping at the situation ... so I don't know where it comes from,'' said a member of the right faction who could be reached after story broke on the ABC.
By 7.20pm, Rudd was back in his office locked in talks with Gillard. Swan, Defence Minister Senator John Faulkner, Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese and Special Minister of State Joe Ludwig were in the room at various times during the three-hour meeting. Rudd rejected a request to step down, called a news conference and announced caucus members - who were already due to meet the next day for a briefing on the Government's health reforms - would now vote for leader.
"I was elected by the people of Australia to do a job. I was not elected by the factional leaders of Australia, of the Australian Labor Party to do a job - though they may be seeking to do a job on me, that's a separate matter,'' Rudd said.
Rudd had been aware for the "last several weeks'' that he had lost support of some factional leaders. His deputy had asked for a leadership ballot earlier that night.
"If I am returned as the leader of the party and the government and as Prime Minister then I will be very clear about one thing - this party and government will not be lurching to the right on the question of asylum-seekers as some have counselled us to do,'' Rudd said. "On the question of climate change, we'll be moving to a timetable on emissions trading which is of the government's decision, contrary to the views of some in terms of when that best occurs.''
Rudd believed he was "quite capable of winning'' the ballot and ended the press conference shortly before 10.45pm. Moments later, a sombre-looking Gillard strode along a ministerial wing corridor and was swarmed by the media but only made one statement "I will be a candidate in tomorrow's ballot".
Before Rudd had even finished speaking, I received a message from a member of the left faction who wrote "I will be supporting Gillard''. Some backbenchers stated their position on the Twitter. Labor Member for Bendigo Steve Gibbons wrote "in case anyone's interested, I will be voting for Julia Gillard''.
ACT Labor Senator Kate Lundy posted "I will be voting for Julia Gillard in the leadership ballot. She will be an inspiring PM'' Labor's other Julia - retiring Member for Fowler Julia Irwin - lashed out at those behind the coup. "Not since Brutus stabbed Julius Caesar have we seen such an act of betrayal,'' Irwin said. "With these sort of standards ... of loyalty, Federal Labor unfortunately could be on the same path as New South Wales Labor.''
An emotional Rudd made the same point in the special caucus meeting, according to sources. He urged colleagues not to follow the example set by their NSW counterparts who had changed leaders after struggling in the polls for a few months. He listed the Government's achievements, including investing in education, investing in education and attempting to tackle climate change. Rudd stressed that Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner and Climate Change Minister Penny Wong were the only frontbenchers who argued vigorously against shelving plans for an emissions trading scheme. The meeting was described as "pretty emotional'' and "sombre''.
At 9.34am, NSW Senator Michael Forshaw and Tasmanian MP Dick Adams emerged from the caucus meeting to announce Gillard was elected leader and Swan was elected deputy - both unopposed. Rudd stepped aside, which some Labor figures construed as an acknowledgement that he had no chance of winning but others interpreted as a selfless act to avoid causing further damage to the party in an election year.
Shorten pointed out "there were 112 caucus members who did not make this decision lightly. It is, without a doubt, I suspect, for every one of those caucus members, including myself, the single, hardest decision that we've ever made in politics. It wasn't done lightly. I concede it was done quickly and I reckon there's - and I can understand a fair amount of shock but it wasn't done on the basis of an opinion poll.''
Shortly before 11.30am, the ousted leader, his wife Therese Rein and their three children Jessica, Nicholas and Marcus faced the media. It was harrowing. Rudd nominated achievements he was proud of, taking lengthy pauses as he struggled to retain his composure. "What I'm less proud of is the fact that I have now blubbered,'' he said. Rudd took comfort from his wife who gently placed her hand on his back and softly spoke words of encouragement throughout the press conference. He described his wife as a "very good person'' and remarked "one of life's eternal mysteries is why she ever married me in the first place''.
Rudd - who intends to stand for re-election in his Queensland electorate - wrapped up the conference with his customary departing line: "having said all that folks, we've gotta zip''. About an hour later, Australia had a new prime minister after a short swearing-in ceremony and a stroke of a pen.
Published 1.7.2010
Hold your horses, it's not over
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd could learn more about the art of deflection from watching old footage of former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.
Her skills were on formidable display about 30 years ago during an interview with Australian journalist George Negus who asked ''why do people stop us in the street ... and tell us that Margaret Thatcher isn't just inflexible, she's not just single-minded, on occasions she's plain pig-headed and won't be told by anybody?'' Thatcher demanded to know who had stopped Negus, where he had been bailed up and how many people had expressed that view. ''Why won't you tell me their names and who they are?'' Thatcher asked. Negus recently described the encounter as the ''the worst political interview I've done and probably one of the best bits of television''.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd took a different tack this week when a female journalist wearing a grey fedora, white shirt, tie and black pants asked ''why is your leadership in crisis?'' ''Well that's a point of language, which you have used and used which is dramatically consistent with the dress which you have chosen today. It's a great tie, it's a nice hat, I like it a lot,'' Rudd said during a press conference about paid parental leave.
Some condemned the Prime Minister's comment as sexist. Others believed the remark reflected that Rudd was under pressure as he faced potentially the final sitting fortnight before the election.
Rudd entered the session with headlines describing him as ''besieged'' and ''embattled'' as the Government struggles in the polls and loses skin in the fight with mining companies opposed to the Resources Super Profits Tax.
Senior Government figures scoffed at speculation that Rudd's leadership was in trouble. Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard said it was ''completely absurd'' to suggest she should replace Rudd. ''The thing that matters is not what's in the pages of the daily newspapers but a focus on making a difference to working families,'' Gillard said. Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner and Treasurer Wayne Swan were equally adamant that Rudd had the support of caucus and would lead Labor to the upcoming election. ''I acknowledge there will be some chatter from time to time but the party is 100per cent behind Kevin Rudd. That doesn't mean to say that there won't be a couple of malcontents,'' Swan said.
Long-time caucus members shared the same view privately, saying colleagues wished the party was in a stronger position in the polls but detected no mood for a leadership spill.
The Government's plan to impose a 40per cent tax on ''super profits'' made in the resources sector is causing jitters on the backbench. In recent caucus meetings, members have appealed for simple information to help explain the change to their constituents and urged ministers to spruik the benefits that will flow from the tax expected to apply from July 1, 2012. The Government will cut company taxes, offer tax relief to small business and boost the superannuation rate if the Resource Super Profits Tax is introduced. Some Government members particularly those in marginal seats covering mining towns are anxious about the impact on their re-election prospects if the Government and resource companies can't reach an agreement soon.
Member for Brand Gary Gray, a parliamentary secretary, made carefully scripted but pointed public comments in the lead-up to the caucus meeting.
He hoped the stoush was settled by August, warning it would create uncertainty in the mining sector and cause a ''lot of difficulty'' for politicians if this matter was not resolved ''for months and ... months''.
''I don't think it has to be done this week or next week, but certainly we wouldn't want to have the current degree of debate and uncertainty in play in August,'' Gray said. Gray was reportedly more robust in the caucus meeting, having an argument with Tanner over the Finance Minister's remark that there was no ''specific time slot'' to resolve this issue.
A second MP, Jim Turnour, made a ''heartfelt'' speech in the same meeting, warning leadership speculation was unhelpful and urging colleagues to stick together and show discipline amid tough political times. The Far-North Queensland MP faces a challenge from LNP candidate Warren Entsch who was the Member for Leichhardt from 1996 to 2007.
The caucus meeting was described as calm, constructive and positive by a range of backbenchers. Rudd urged colleagues to hold their nerve amid suggestions the Government could lose marginal seats in three states Western Australia, Queensland and South Australia as a result of the mining tax. ''Reform is a tough business. Reform is a hard business. It's a controversial business, and the key thing in the reform process is for governments to maintain their nerve and for governments to maintain their unity. This Government is doing both, and we'll get on with it,'' Rudd said in Parliament.
''We intend to apply to this the same discipline that we'd apply as we negotiated our way through financial crisis when many, many, many including all of those opposite attacked us daily over the measures that we took. We saw the country through that. We've seen the country though other challenges. And we'll work our way through this challenge as well.''
Opposition frontbencher Ian Macfarlane offered some unsolicited advice to the Prime Minister. ''If I was Kevin Rudd, I would only be sleeping with one eye shut. My advice to Kevin Rudd is now keep both eyes open when you're asleep because Julia Gillard's after your job,'' Macfarlane said.
In a joint party meeting, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said the Coalition had a real chance of winning the upcoming election but would face an opponent with the ''awesome'' power of incumbency and a larger war chest. ''We want to play a straight and steady game,'' Abbott reportedly told colleagues after he cautioned against feeling ''false euphoria'' based on results from a few recent polls. Labor's primary vote has slipped from 46 per cent to 35 per cent in the past six months, according to this week's Essential Poll that also shows the Coalition's primary vote has increased from 35 per cent to 41 per cent in the same period.
Labor had a two-point lead on a two-party-preferred basis ahead 51-49 of the Coalition. Voters believed Labor was better at ''representing the interests of Australian working people'' and ''standing up to big multinational corporations'' than the Liberal Party.
The Liberals were considered better at ''dealing with the issue of immigration'', ''handling Australia's economy'', ''handling Australia's relations with other countries'', ''taking Australia forward not backwards'' and ''having a vision for Australia's future'' than Labor. There was little difference in voters' views about which major party had the upper hand in terms of ''handling the economy in a way that best protects working people in Australia'', ''understanding the needs of the average Australian'' and ''representing the interests of you and people like you''.
About four in 10 voters believed mining companies have too much influence and only two in 10 voters trust them. Respondents are spilt in their views on the proposed Resources Super Profits Tax. The polls shows 42per cent agree ''the new tax will result in mining companies cutting back on their investments in Australia and there will be a significant loss of Australian jobs'' and 40per cent believe ''mining companies will continue to make large profits. They are just trying to avoid paying their fair share of tax''. The rest are unsure.
Mining companies and the Opposition continue to attack the tax, arguing it will cause economic damage and cost jobs. Minerals Council of Australia chief Mitch Hooke suggests the Government isn't ''within a bull's roar'' of overcoming the industry's concerns about the tax.
After a meeting with officials in Parliament House this week, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Xstrata jointly complained that the Government has failed to address the companies' ''fundamental areas of concern'' so far. The companies want guarantees that the tax will not apply to existing projects and will not damage Australia's international competitiveness.
Rudd thinks the Government has the tax rate ''about right'' and will continue to talk with industry about the details, including considering calls from parts of the sector for tailored transition arrangements.
''I do not intend ... to engage in any public debate about elements of detailed implementation and generous transition arrangements,'' Rudd said.
''If you were the Government engaged in negotiations with industries as large, big, muscley and from time to time as ugly as parts of the mining industry, you'd actually manage those negotiations privately, confidentially and with them individually, that's what's going on at the moment.''
Abbott suggests the Government should give up.
''It's a bad tax. There is no way to improve it. It should just be dumped. These are the sorts of conversations that if the Government had been fair dinkum, if it'd been any sort of grown up government, would have been had before the decision was made, not afterwards. The decision is a bad decision. There's no way to fix it. The tax should simply be dumped,'' Abbott said.
Rudd declared the Opposition had ''no spine for tax reform'' and tried to shift the debate this week.
He picked a fight with the Senate when challenging the Opposition to pass legislation to establish a paid parental leave scheme from January 1 next year. ''We have a very simple message for the Senate, which is get out of the road guys, just get on with it. This is really important, this is really important, it is so key to making life easier for working families,'' Rudd said. The Opposition had already pledged to support the Bill but the Government had ''learnt to be a bit distrustful of how these things are handled in the Senate''.
Rudd also urged the Senate to pass welfare reforms that will roll out income management across the Northern Territory from July 1.''They will ... ensure that more welfare is spent on life's essentials, like food, clothes and rent, and less goes to alcohol,'' Rudd told Parliament.
''They will also support and encourage families to make positive decisions about the critical things for their families, like education, health and nutrition. In practical terms, this means that this reform extends to the entirety of the Northern Territory community. ''My challenge is very simply this: on the key questions of reform will the Leader of the Opposition commit to ensuring that these reforms are passed during this sitting fortnight? He shakes his head or he nods his head I am not quite sure which it is.''
Abbott was nodding. ''May I, on indulgence, say yes to those questions that were posed ... I do not wish the Prime Minister to be unnecessarily frustrated or agitated,'' he said. In his speech to the Parliamentary Press Gallery's Mid-Winter Ball, Abbott confessed he was prone to frustration. As a journalist, he was a frustrated politician. As a politician, he is a frustrated journalist. In the seminary, he was just frustrated.
At the same occasion Rudd also made a confession: He had uttered ''rat f---ers'' during the climate change summit in Copenhagen as reported by journalist David Marr in his quarterly essay titled Power Trip: The Political Journey of Kevin Rudd.
The Prime Minister contended he was commenting on two ''romping'' rodents rather than China's delegates.
Marr concludes the Prime Minister is driven by anger and finds it ''very hard ... to, in a sense, let go, to share work, to trust people around him''. Rudd quipped he believed in ''sharing blame around'' and anyone who agreed with the newspaper scribe's assessment could ''get stuffed''. An awkward silence came near the end of Rudd's speech when he attempted to make a joke about the mining sector a long-time sponsor of the ball. ''Can I say guys, we've got a long memory,'' before leaving the stage to the strains of Don't Worry Baby by The Beach Boys.
Published 19.6.2010
Green ascent puts old-style parties' power in the balance
At a time when polls suggest voters are increasingly disillusioned with the major political parties, the Australian Greens are on the rise.
The minor party's primary vote has surged to 16per cent one point shy of the rating for the Australian Democrats in its heyday. But do voters see the Greens as a ''parking place'' for their vote in the lead-up to the election or is the minor party emerging as a ''safe pasture'' for Australians fed up with the major parties? Greens leader Bob Brown believes there is a trend. ''I had a businessman from the mainland stop me in the street today and just say, 'Look I'm a swinging voter these days and I like the way in which you Greens are presenting yourselves. You're rational, you're clear and you're being sensible about what you're saying''', Brown tells The Canberra Times.
''Now I wouldn't have expected that person to have even thought about voting Green in the past.'' Brown believes two things are in play. ''One is that I think the Greens vote is growing. I think we're picking up voters from both sides of politics ...'' he says. ''And the other is that there may be some people who are resting their vote with the Greens until they get closer to the election because they just don't feel like leaving it with Labor in particular at the moment.''
The Greens have also been fortunate, according to Dr Haydon Manning, who heads the Department of Politics and Public Policy at Flinders University.
The Federal Government's proposed emissions trading scheme was so complex that many voters were left scratching their heads. ''So in opposing it, they haven't had to wear the same sort of flak that the Rudd Government has in terms of its failure, and its failure of course meaning no immediate headway on reducing emissions,'' Manning says. ''I think the Greens have managed to get off reasonably scot-free, at least in voters' eyes.''
The rise of the Greens could reflect a wider phenomenon, according to Richard Eckersley, a visiting fellow at the Australian National University and director of Australia 21, an independent research company. ''I guess you see this in much more simple terms and say that the swing to the Greens in the recent polling is a direct consequence of the Government's perceived failure on things like climate change and leave it at that,'' Eckersley says.
''But if you put it in a wider context, if you look at the sense of disillusion people felt about Blair in the UK and the fact that Obama's rating has swung quite wildly depending on whether he's perceived to be dealing with issues successfully or not this really goes back awhile now that we've seen this volatility in electorates. So it does suggest there's something more to it.''
Eckersley says political volatility could reflect ''a disjuncture or dislocation between the way people are feeling about life today and the ... priorities of politics''.''Now because of the magnitude of these changes, we're seeing that dominant world view of material progress just sort of increasingly fail to address people's concerns,'' he says.
''In fact, if you look at many of the deep concerns people have about quality of life and the future, they're actually a result of our focus as a society too narrowly on economic growth and material progress. So the common concerns you get relate to the decline of the community, too much pressure on families and on kids, too much greed and consumerism. These things emerge consistently in surveys that actually ask about these deeper concerns about life today.''
Voters' natural response is to look for an alternative and this seems to benefit the Greens, according to Eckersley.
The Greens have shared the balance of power in the Senate during this parliamentary term. From the outset, questions were raised about whether the party forged from the environmental protest movement could successfully occupy territory held by the Democrats in the past.
Brown believes the Greens silenced doubters in the debate about the Government's stimulus package, which was designed to stave off recession during the global financial crisis. The Greens supported the spending after securing concessions.
''We're headed for less than 5 per cent unemployment next year rather than double-digit unemployment because the Greens were sensibly in the Senate getting a better dividend out of that stimulus when the Opposition, including Tony Abbott, were saying no,'' Brown says.
''We'd be in real trouble economically had it been left to the Opposition.'' Brown predicts the upcoming election will be ''won or lost'' on issues that include the economy, environment, health, education and governance.
''They [voters] feel like they've been let down by the major parties and it's not going to change, and they're looking at the Greens as new pasture, which is safe for them,'' Brown says.
Manning agrees.
''Voters have a jaundiced view about the Government of the day and are wary of the Opposition and are clearly seeking to park their vote and that is very much a protest vote against the major parties of the day,'' Manning says. Polls show the Greens have improved their standing since the 2007 federal election. In the Nielsen Poll, the Greens' primary vote has increased from 8 per cent to 15 per cent, Labor's has plunged from 43 per cent to 33 per cent and the Coalition is up one point to 43 per cent. It is a similar result in the Newspoll during the same period. The Greens' primary vote has increased from 8 per cent to 16 per cent, Labor's is down from 43 per cent to 35 per cent and the Coalition's has dipped from 42 per cent to 41 per cent.
Only two of the five Greens senators are up for re-election later this year. Greens deputy leader Christine Milne and Western Australian Rachel Siewert are expected to hold their seats. The Greens may pick up a Senate seat in every state if the current poll results are reflected across the country on election day, according to Manning, who also warns the 16 per cent rating is a ''soft vote''.
The Greens' core vote is probably about 5 per cent to 7 per cent and its core constituency is professional, tertiary-educated people who live in inner-urban areas. The 16 per cent primary vote may hold up in the Senate but it is ''a bit far-fetched'' to expect the Greens can win House of Representatives seats currently held by Government frontbenchers Lindsay Tanner, Tanya Plibersek or Anthony Albanese.
''However, we are in a pretty unique position where Australians have quickly turned against a government and they're looking to a pretty raw Opposition Leader who ... scares the horses a bit. He doesn't pitch to middle Australia,'' Manning says.
He believes the upcoming election could be a replay of the 1990 poll, when the Australian Democrats truly emerged as the third force in federal politics. If the Greens can emulate the Democrats' feat and secure the balance of power in their own right, Manning says the Greens' day-to-day activity will receive a lot more attention and scrutiny.
Securing the balance of power is demanding, concedes Brown, who is ''very happy with the prospect'' of holding that position but remains cautious about banking on the latest poll results being reflected on election day.
''We always are aware that the vote may well drop off in the run to an election,'' he says.
Brown believes retaining the level of support hinges on the ''hard-working Senate team'', developing good policy and selecting high-calibre candidates who are ''green'' in the widest sense of the word advocates for environmental, social and economic issues.
He singles out ACT candidate Lin Hatfield Dodds - the former director of UnitingCare Australia and ex-president of the Australian Council of Social Service, who is running for a Senate seat. Brown expects winning this seat is ''not beyond our reach''.
''While we can't match the big parties, we'll have the best campaign we've ever had when the election comes along,'' he says. He expects the major parties will again focus their ''firepower'' on the Greens, citing past campaigns where opponents tried to portray the minor party as ''advocating drug use and being close to criminals''.
''We expect a bit of that but I think ... it's rapidly losing its potency and I think they'd better be careful or it will rebound,'' Brown says. ''We're ready for it. We're very sharp to it and I think the electorate that's likely to vote for us ... will be very prickly about a campaign run by either Labor or the Liberals.''
Manning believes the major parties will escalate attacks on the Greens in a bid to woo back supporters. One attractive avenue is to raise concerns about ''what will happen to the Greens'' if the ''charismatic, foundation leader'' retires from politics.
''Brown holds authority in a party, which if you know a bit about the Greens, is pretty disparate in sort of the membership base it has activists. They have a wide range of views like any political party and they're often contradictory and filled with tension,'' Manning says.
Brown has stressed that he has no plans to retire and chuckles when asked if he has ever had a secret ambition to join a major political party, saying the ''thought would never cross my mind and I advised Peter Garrett not to''. He thinks former Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot's defection to Labor was ''deadly'' for the minor party.
''I think [the Democrats] were the best thing in 20th century politics in Australia and in a way have set the ... stage for the Greens to be this growing third force. We're now up in the polls where the Democrats were in their heyday. Our job is to keep that going,'' Brown says.
''I think they were a phenomenal asset for Australia in the nearly four decades ... they were in national politics.
''But we aim to grow as a third party, to challenge the big parties in opposition and government. We don't think the existing parties are going to be up to it as they're faced with challenges like the loss of biodiversity ... let alone climate change or the big question mark over feeding nine billion people by mid-century etcetera. I think the other parties are still thinking last century and they're still thinking in three-year terms, and you can't do that.''
Eckersley says elections are usually fought on a few ''highly contrived issues'', failing to address the deeper concerns of voters. ''Political commentators and strategists seem to always be caught flat-footed by these sudden swings in the electorate and I think it is because they look at the kind of usual level of political debate and voter intentions and so on,'' Eckersley says.
''It's not really usual for them to go deeply into these changes in the world view, if you like, and paradigms as people struggle to come to terms with their anxieties and concerns and hopes and fears.''
Published 12.6.2010
People with mental health problems face form of 'apartheid'
People with mental health problems face a form of ''apartheid'', according to Australian of the Year Professor Patrick McGorry, a leading international researcher, clinician and advocate in the field. Professor McGorry delivered the Grace Groom Memorial Lecture established by the Mental Health Council of Australia at the National Press Club yesterday. He lamented the lack of federal investment in services and failure to tackle the stigma which affected people with a mental illness, their carers and people working in the field.
''Despite all the rhetoric on social inclusion, we are socially excluded ... that's not good enough,'' Professor McGorry said yesterday. ''It's like a kind of apartheid.
''A woman contacted me ... and said, 'When I had my operation for cancer, I woke up in a room full of flowers. Six months later, I'm in hospital for an episode of psychosis ... I woke up in a bed in a bare room, no visitors and a completely different experience. ''This is the same person. So it's not just apartheid between one group and another group.
''We expect to get a fair deal in mental health. We currently do not have a fair deal.'' Professor McGorry, who is a foundation board member of headspace, the National Youth Mental Health Foundation, said more than four million Australians were affected by mental illness, enough people to fill the Melbourne Cricket Ground 40 times over. Two-thirds of these people would receive no treatment. Only 6 per cent of the health budget was devoted to mental health care, which failed to reflect that mental illness accounted for at least 14 per cent of the burden of disease.
Mental illness accounted for 36 per cent of the burden of disease among people in the ''prime of their life'' those aged 15 to 44 years old.
He noted some positive developments in mental health care but believed ''we've built a car and put 50c worth of petrol in it''. More money should be spent on early intervention programs designed to help people before they became acutely ill.
The system needed a shake-up to ensure more services were available for young people. ''We've managed to treat another 28-30,000 young people in this age group in the last two or three years but there's 700,000 of them out there.'' He warned against pessimism and inertia, saying the system could be improved but the community must push for it.
A range of peak groups have jointly written to Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, urging him to set aside more funds for mental health services.
''What is the reason for this neglect?'' Professor McGorry asked. ''What's the deeper analysis here? ... When [the Government has] just spent billions on health care reform ... why is mental health one of the two main areas that's been left out?''
Published 28.5.2010
Julia Gillard For PM?
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd should watch out if his deputy starts coming to work wearing a spacesuit, smelling of liniment or spruiking nautical terms. When it was suggested in the past that she was prime ministerial material, Julia Gillard would dismiss the praise with humour along the lines of ''wrong faction, wrong gender''.
She was an opposition frontbencher at the time.
Gillard is now Deputy Prime Minister so the keys to the Lodge are closer to hand but she is using more outlandish analogies to dismiss leadership talk.
''You may as well ask me am I anticipating a trip to Mars,'' Gillard said. 'You know, there's more chance of me becoming the full forward for the Dogs than there is of any change in the Labor Party. ''I think there's more chance of me going round the world sailing solo a dozen times than this chatter in the media becoming anything more than that. 'Gillard made all these statements in the past few weeks after Rudd took a hit in three opinion polls, which triggered leadership speculation.
The Canberra Times has spoken with a long-time Labor strategist, an author who penned The Making of Julia Gillard and an Australian National University academic who specialises in political branding. They all believe Gillard will eventually become prime minister without performing some superhuman feat.
Gillard was born in Wales in 1961 and jokes about being a ''10 Pound Pom'' one of the British citizens who moved to Australia in the 1950s and 1960s under the assisted passage scheme. The fare was 10 for adults but children travelled for free. The family settled in Adelaide where Gillard went to Unley High School and the University of Adelaide before moving to the University of Melbourne. She studied law and was active in student politics two interests that have underpinned her working life. Gillard was an industrial lawyer for Slater & Gordon and eventually became a partner in the firm. She went to serve as chief-of-staff to John Brumby when he was Victorian Opposition leader. Gillard first took a seat on the backbench in 1998 after she was elected as Federal Member for Lalor. Within three years, she was on the Opposition frontbench with responsibility for a range of portfolios, including population and immigration, reconciliation and indigenous affairs and health, during the period. She was the manager of Opposition business in the House a key strategic role.
In late 2006, Gillard became deputy Opposition leader after she teamed up with Rudd to topple the embattled leader Kim Beazley. It was viewed as an alliance of convenience the left-wing Victorian woman and the conservative Queensland man needed each other to secure the numbers.
The relationship is more than a shrewd political pact, according to Gillard who has stressed ''our minds work in similar ways ... so we are capable of having very rapid-fire conversations where we are both understanding one another and then you are increasingly conscious that no one else in the room is''. With the Rudd-Gillard ticket, Labor won the election in 2007 and will seek a second term when Australians head to the ballot box later this year.
Member for Fraser Bob McMullan a long-time Labor strategist describes Gillard as one of the party's biggest assets. She is an effective communicator, has a positive attitude to work and complements Rudd, according to McMullan who scoffs at leadership speculation.'' I think it's childish rubbish by people who don't know anything about politics,'' according to McMullan, who will retire from the House of Representatives at the upcoming election. ''Yes, I think she'll be prime minister one day and I think she'll be terrific. I won't be around I hope still to be alive but I mean I won't be around in Parliament. I think if Kevin is ready to go, she's the logical next prime minister and I think she'll be good, and I support her, but I think Kevin will be there for quite a while.''
ANU College of Business and Economics academic Andrew Hughes a specialist in political branding is not so sure. ''Brand Rudd has definitely been hurt a lot of late because he hasn't acted as a leader and as someone who is making the change happen. He promised a lot of change and ... if you promise something and don't deliver it you're going to have a whole level of dissatisfaction. Whereas Gillard seems to be a very strong performer as Deputy Prime Minister,'' Hughes says.
Author Jacqueline Kent who wrote The Making of Julia Gillard is certain that Gillard is prime ministerial material and has proven it when she has acted in the role. ''I've been told it's really good when she's there,'' Kent says.
''The bureaucrats really like it because she pushes papers through really quickly. She's not a micromanager the way Rudd is fairly famous for being. I've been told there's a great line up of people clutching bits of paper for her to sign when she's the acting PM.'' Kent charts Gillard's political career, which has been marked by ''pitched battles with jealous rivals and powerful factions. To conservatives, she is still 'red Julia'. To some on the left, she is still a politician too willing to compromise''.
''The popular view is yes, she's prime minister in waiting, a heartbeat away from the top job and all that sort of thing,'' Kent says. ''But popular perception is one thing. The way the Labor Party works is another and I think this is why she did say that 'anyone who thinks I'm definitely going to be it, doesn't know anything about politics'.''Kent says Rudd must be ''really damaged'' in polls before the party will even consider leadership change. The Prime Minister's popularity has only ''dipped a bit'' but this is from a ''very high base''.
''In fact, I've seen a graph that says he is doing better in polls than either [John] Howard or [Paul] Keating were in their first term,'' Kent says.
''I don't think that's too much of a worry. I really don't think that Kevin Rudd is going to want to give up being Prime Minister any time soon.
''And if there was the slightest whiff of possibility that Gillard was plotting against him, you can just see what everybody would do about that traitor Gillard turns against party, the media would turn against her like a shot. She's not stupid.'' But Kent believes the odds are shortening that Gillard will eventually become prime minister.
When the top job is up for grabs, Kent expects other contenders will emerge possibly Treasurer Wayne Swan, Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner and Assistant Climate Change Minister Greg Combet who have ''leadership ambitions in their knapsack''. Hughes has noticed a shift in the political dynamic that suits Gillard, with leaders increasingly pitching their message to appeal to core supporters. Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is using this tactic.
Hughes believes Rudd's decision to ditch plans for an emissions trading scheme has disappointed the core where Gillard has strong appeal.
''Rudd is losing lot of support in marginal seats. But I think of more concern to Labor is their primary vote is slipping, which perhaps says even their core now are having second thoughts about Rudd as a leader,'' Hughes says. The lingering question is whether Gillard will have widespread appeal in voter-ville, according to Hughes.
''We've seen the failings of people in the past who have been deputies or strong performers in roles and ... the electorate just doesn't buy them as a leader. They accepted them as a very strong person or strong leader in their area but not as the overall brand,'' Hughes says.
Former Australian prime minister Paul Keating, ex-British prime minister Gordon Brown and former US vice-president Al Gore are prime examples of deputies who struggled when they made or tried to make the transition to leader, according to Hughes.
''In Australia, the big question is can someone make that successful leap and then build a brand based on who they are and not what they did for someone else,'' Hughes says. ''And I think maybe Julia Gillard could be the first one to break that mould. I mean she's been the first in a few cases the first foreign-born Deputy Prime Minister ... and one of the first women to serve in a very, very senior role in Australian politics as Prime Minister when Kevin Rudd is away.
''In the official campaign, Hughes predicts the Opposition will home its attacks on Rudd rather than Gillard who has been a consistent performer in the media and Parliament. ''And in a lot of areas that she's been in charge of we've seen some of the greatest leaps and bounds by Labor in Government, such as education ... and that's really helping her profile a lot,'' Hughes says.
Kent believes Gillard is content in her current position, saying she enjoys her mega role as Deputy Prime Minister, Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations, Minister for Education and Minister for Social Inclusion. As a lawyer by trade, Gillard enjoys identifying problems and finding practical solutions. ''She likes practical things to do and a job to have that is not necessarily someone who has the kind of mindset where they want to be top of the heap,'' Kent says. Gillard has a sharp brain, is focused and has good instincts when working out what is most important to voters, according to Kent who believes the Deputy Prime Minister is a bit like the Queen.
''One thing that stands out very clearly in Julia Gillard and it's something that you see quite clearly when you meet her, for good or ill or for whatever reason, she has got the strongest sense of who she is of anyone I've met in quite a long time,'' Kent says.
''The other thing she does is that old Godfather thing about keep your friends close and your enemies closer. She's got a very, very good strong loyal group of friends who do not spill beans. She is friendly. She's a little bit like the Queen in a funny way. I mean she'd love to hear this but it's absolutely true she offers friendliness without friendship. I think that's also a key to it.''
Gillard also has a self-deprecating sense of humour, according to Kent. ''Having the sense of humour she's got is useful in several ways. ... It makes her attractive to the population. It means she doesn't take herself too seriously and it's also a very good defence mechanism,'' Kent says.
Hughes believes Gillard will be enlisted to campaign heavily in Labor heartland and the marginal seats in the lead-up to the election. He tips the federal budget and the Opposition's ''incompetence'' will save Rudd's political skin.
''If Kevin Rudd does win the next election and it's still an if at the moment ... because it's going to be a very, very tight election I see a smooth transition happening perhaps 18 months into his second term across to Gillard because he won't win a third term as prime minister.''
McMullan expects Labor will win the upcoming election and believes this is a prevailing opinion in caucus.
''I think most people are optimistic and anybody who was complacent and I don't think there was anybody ... has had that taken away from them in the recent polls. But objectively speaking, I can't think of a government that was 50-50 in the polls six months out that lost.'' The same polls show about one-third of voters believe Gillard will do a better job than Rudd who has kept an extraordinary low profile in the past week.
Gillard has maintained a consistent line when asked about her leadership ambitions over the years.
''I am very, very happy, passionate and enthusiastic about my job as Deputy Prime Minister,'' she said recently. ''In 2006 I made a decision, I made a decision to work with Kevin Rudd as his deputy. I am very much enjoying that and the special opportunity it gives me to make a difference for Australian kids and Australian families right around this country.''
Published 5.6. 2010
"Political Cowardice''
Here is something to consider.
If John Howard had won the 2007 federal election, Australia might have an emissions trading scheme by now.
Howard, who was vilified over his refusal to ratify the Kyoto Protocol and reluctance to tackle other key environmental issues, could be remembered as the prime minister that put a price on carbon to address climate change.
It is fostering Howard nostalgia in one of the most unexpected quarters.
An insider reports some members of the green movement now believe Howard would have delivered more for the environment in his fifth term than Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has in his first.
It is a remarkable shift in sentiment when Howard's stance on issues - ranging from border protection to subsidies for private health insurance - won him few friends on the left. Howard's plan for an emissions trading scheme is now considered superior to the one put forward by Rudd.
Rudd has repeatedly described climate change as the great moral, economic, environmental and-or social challenge of our age. He has condemned moves to delay action as "absolute political cowardice'', "an absolute failure of leadership'', "an absolute failure of logic''.
"To delay any longer would be reckless and irresponsible for our economy and for our environment,'' Rudd said during an address to the National Press Club in late 2008.
Fast-forward, Rudd has now put-off plans to establish an emissions trading scheme. Climate Change Minister Penny Wong says "we will only introduce it if there is sufficient progress internationally particularly from China, India and the USA and we expect that that will occur at the conclusion of what is known as the Kyoto period which will end in 2012 ....'' It sounds very similar to arguments put forward by opposition leaders Dr Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull who were both dumped in part as a result of their stance on the emissions trading scheme.
Rudd demanded action on climate change. Turnbull tried his best to broker a deal as he copped it from both sides - government frontbenchers keen to make political mileage out their opponents' divisions over the issue and Coalition colleagues who refused to support any emissions trading scheme.
Turnbull was cornered, tried to fight his way out, led with the chin and was knocked out, creating the opportunity for Tony Abbott to step into the ring. The Government played a part in Turnbull's demise. Rudd now faces an Opposition Leader who has described climate change as "absolute crap'' and ditched the party's policy to establish an emissions trading scheme.
Abbott wants "direct action'' - using taxpayer dollars to establish an emissions reduction fund offering incentives to industry and farmers to reduce CO2 emissions, providing rebates for solar panels and planting 20 million extra trees by 2020.
It is hardly unusual for a leadership change to trigger a policy shift. Remember Medicare Gold - Labor leader Mark Latham's bold plan to ensure every Australian aged 75 or older had immediate access to a free hospital bed in the public or private system. This contentious policy was quickly scrapped after Latham lost the election.
The Government is trying to portray Abbott's stance on the emissions trading scheme as a broken election commitment. Howard promised a scheme so Abbott should deliver. For this argument to stack up, the Government should immediately draw up plans for Medicare Gold. It is also hard to claim the high ground when the Government has broken a string of commitments including seeking to means-test private health insurance rebates and abandoning plans to build 260 childcare centres.
There may be valid reasons to make a policy u-turn because circumstances can change and unforeseen events can crop-up. The pressure to find budget savings is compounded when the surplus has been used to stave-off recession.
Rudd had to face a political reality. His emissions trading scheme had no friends - beyond the Government's ranks - in the Senate. He had no hope of passing the bills with the Opposition and Family First Senator Steve Fielding offside. Independent Senator Nick Xenophon has called for a simpler system to reduce carbon pollution and the Greens want a tougher regime to encourage big polluters to change their ways.
If actions match the rhetoric, Rudd will call a double dissolution election and try to pass the bills in a joint sitting of parliament. Putting off the issue leaves Rudd open to accusations of "absolute political cowardice''. He has been justifiably hammered over the u-turn on emissions trading but has tried to retain the focus on health - core strength for the Labor and a top-ranking issue for the electorate.
Rudd intends to continue the grand tour of Australia's public hospital system to sell his vision for health reform in the lead-up to the election. The Commonwealth will take over primary health and aged care plus become the dominant funder of public hospitals under the agreement struck with the states - except Western Australia - and the territories.
Rudd announced yesterday tobacco taxes would rise by 25 per cent from today and companies would be forced to use plain packaging on their tobacco products from January 2012. Tobacco companies are expected to launch a legal challenge. It is difficult to see a political downside for Rudd. If he loses, Rudd will be the prime minister who dared to take on big tobacco, which is even more unpopular than politicians. If he wins, Rudd will roll-out a reform recommended by the World Health Organisation, Australian Medical Association, Public Health Association of Australia and the government-appointed National Preventative Health Taskforce have recommended generic packaging for tobacco products.
On the health front, the change is considered important to reduce the smoking rate. On the political front, the announcement is a classic from when-all-else-fails-try-a-distraction textbook.
With plans for an emissions trading scheme in limbo, about 200 Canberra bureaucrats face an uncertain future and are understandably ticked-off because most were blind-sided by the Government's announcement. Rudd reckons there will be a "truckload'' of other work available to roll-out renewable energy initiatives.
This has provided little reassurance to public servants who are already twitchy at this time of year as the Treasurer prepares to hand down the federal budget on May 11.
Bureaucrats are already under extra pressure to find savings and fear job cuts in the budget as the Government tries to rein-in spending to put the balance sheet back in the black as soon as possible.
Published 30.04.2011
Health remedy or bitter pill?
A ''seismic shift'' occurred in Canberra a few days ago. Did you feel it? Federalism was reportedly shaken to its foundations at the Council of Australian Governments' meeting in Parliament House. Federal, state and territory leaders decided to remodel the health system, which last had a major structural upgrade about 30 years ago. As a result, the system has developed cracks, is displaying signs of wear and tear, and is danger of becoming a money pit draining state and territory coffers in the not-too-distant future.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd offered a down payment almost $21 billion for work on the system in exchange for taking over as the main contractor.
''This is a good day for working families,'' Rudd said. ''It's a good day for senior Australians, for pensioners and for carers. It's a good day for mums and dads and patients, and good day for doctors and nurses working hard in our health and hospital system across the country.This agreement is a significant agreement but now the real work begins.''
Rudd managed to strike a deal with all the Labor premiers and chief ministers but Western Australia's Liberal Premier, Colin Barnett, was a hold-out. ''Twenty pieces of silver won't work with Western Australia and won't work with me,'' Barnett said after the Commonwealth offered billions of dollars to persuade states and territories to hand over a share of GST revenue.
ACT Chief Minister Jon Stanhope described the deal as ''historic''.''It's a sea change most particularly in the form and declared level of Commonwealth commitment a genuine partnership to the delivery of health services for people of Australia,'' said Stanhope, who stressed that escalating demand for health services and increasingly expensive treatments were ''causing each of the states and territories to groan in the context of their capacity to meet all of their other responsibilities''.
''For my constituents here in the ACT, this agreement represents for us an additional $81 million in the next four years, very significant, and over the term of the agreement by 2020, represents an annual increase in funding for the ACT of $150 million a year a level of investment or boost or guaranteed funding for the ACT that, in the terms of just the dollars, is historic in itself.''
The ACT will receive $99 million over four years $67 million for hospitals, $12 million for aged care, $10 million to train more health professionals, $3 million for mental health and $7 million for primary care. The funds will start to flow from July 1. The ACT has also been guaranteed $248million from 2014-15 to 2019-20 to help cover growing health costs. In return, states and territories will chip in a third of GST revenue to finance the work, which will see the Commonwealth take over aged care and primary health care.
The Commonwealth will also take a dominant role in funding public hospitals, covering 60 per cent of the bills for maintaining and improving infrastructure, research and training, and every service. But it is only liable for 60 per cent of the ''efficient price'' for a hip replacement operation, a stint in the intensive care unit, a visit to the emergency department and the like determined by an independent umpire.
The COAG communique states that the independent pricing authority will also ''be empowered to make binding determinations about cost-shifting and cross-border issues in the health and hospital system''. This is an ongoing source of conflict between NSW and the ACT.
Currently, the ACT Government believes it is owed about $31 million for treating NSW residents in Canberra's public hospitals. The NSW Government disputes the bill, triggering another row over payments with the ACT.
As a result of the COAG agreement, health dollars will be pooled, channelled through three-member funding authorities in each state or territory and distributed to about 100 new local networks that will be responsible for running small clusters of hospitals. It is understood that one network will oversee only Canberra Hospital, because Calvary is privately owned. COAG compromises have put the kibosh on Rudd's suggestion that Canberra, Queanbeyan, Yass and Cooma hospitals could be run by one network to ''make some sensible, local, community-of-interest decisions for the future''.
Hospitals will be funded based on activity but block grants will be available for small hospitals in regional and rural areas. Government officials have confirmed that it is a more complex version of the purchaser-provider model ditched by the ACT Government after a review conducted by senior bureaucrat Mick Reid, who went on to serve as chief of staff to federal Health Minister Nicola Roxon. In his capacity as a consultant to the ACT Government, Reid concluded that this model for distributing health dollars was overly rigid, discouraged innovation and failed to factor quality into the equation.
As part of the COAG pact, a new national authority will prepare reports on the performance of local hospital networks and individual hospitals, both private and public. In what could become the hospital equivalent of the ''My School'' website, patients would be able to check details on adverse events in hospitals, financial management, users' satisfaction with services and waiting times for treatment in emergency departments and for elective surgery.
The public will also have access to ''healthy community reports'' on the performance of primary health services, covering such issues as the number of GPs, waiting times for care, and smoking rates or obesity levels in a particular area. A network of primary health care organisations will be established, taking over responsibility for roles such as workforce planning, tackling gaps in services and supporting GPs in a region.
The Australian Medical Association's ACT president, Dr Paul Jones, said the new investment was a ''starting point''. ''Anything that brings extra funds in is a good deal. We obviously will need to see a lot of detail in terms of how these things are actually going to be organised,'' he said.'' We as yet don't have a lot of detail about how things like the hospital network are going to work or how the primary health care stuff is going to roll out, so there's still a lot of detail to work through.
''As a starting point, we think extra funding into the territory's coffers and the extra funding long-term with the federal government looking to fund the growth is a good thing.''
ACT Opposition Leader Zed Seslja also wants to see more details.
''It's impossible to tell whether it's good deal for the ACT at this point,'' he said. ''I think these negotiations have been conducted frantically. We know that many of the negotiations have been one-on-one the Prime Minister with individual state leaders so we don't know what sort of concessions have been extracted from other states in order for them to sign on. We know we're giving up 30 per cent of our GST and losing control of that, really, forever; but we don't yet know who will control our hospitals in the long run, how it will be administered and whether or not we can rely on it.''
ACT Greens health spokeswoman Amanda Bresnan is concerned about the lack of attention paid to disease prevention.'' We have few details about the plan and while we welcome more money everyone does for health, because it takes up such a big part of our budget it's really about how you spend the money,'' she said.
''We've had peak health groups and mental health experts saying we need to focus more on preventative health because that's the thing we need to address the pressure points like your waiting lists and waiting times for emergency.''
Health Care Consumers of the ACT's Russell McGowan believes the deal is ''not as good as it could have been'', given that Canberra's public hospitals provided treatment to many people living in surrounding NSW.
''A lot of our issues with servicing and meeting targets relates to the fact ... that at least a quarter, perhaps as much as third of the patients that are treated here come from the surrounding NSW areas,'' McGowan said. ''And the fact that this compromise has occurred that we're going to stick to the Commonwealth distributes the funding to the states and territories to then administer means that we're going to have a local hospital network relating to just the ACT in the first instance, when really the option was there to have a broader capital regional network.''
It meant that ''game playing'' by the ACT and NSW over payments could continue, according to McGowan. He also highlighted two ''glaring omissions'' in that the plan failed to address e-health and dental health. He doubted that the changes would end the ''health blame game'' played between the levels of government.
''This is not an end to the blame game,'' he said. ''There's still going to be blame-shifting, perhaps less so on costs and more on the way in which clinical services are provided to meet agreed targets and to activity based funding. We don't want to see a whole lot of activities reclassified so they'll attract greater funding. The classic example of this is where emergency department waiting times are addressed by having people in corridors in hospital rather than in emergency departments.''
Stanhope is pleased with the deal, saying that over four years it would deliver ''22 new sub-acute hospital beds, shorter waiting times in accident and emergency departments and 350 or so extra elective surgeries each year''. ''From 2014, the Commonwealth will start sharing the growth in the cost of health care. From that point, the ACT will receive an annual funding benefit growing to around $150 million a year by 2020,'' Stanhope said.
''Crucially, the ACT has secured explicit recognition in the new deal of the unique characteristics of the ACT's public health system and its primary health system. ''The targets and prices to be established under the agreement will, for example, take account of the fact that the ACT has the second-lowest number of general practitioners per capita, and the lowest bulk-billing rates in the country factors that place additional pressure on our accident and emergency departments.
''The agreement also recognises the massive number of cross-border services provided by our hospitals. More than a quarter of services in our hospitals are delivered to NSW residents and a third of the people on our elective surgery waiting lists are from NSW.'' Now Rudd has to contend with the Senate, where he will need support from the Opposition or all seven crossbenchers to pass the legislation required to build the new ''National Health and Hospital Network''.
ACT Share
Hospitals: $67 million
- $8 million: four-hour target for treatment in emergency departments.
- $10 million: 95 per cent of patients receive elective surgery in recommended time.
- $26 million: sub-acute beds.
- $8 million: emergency department infrastructure.
- $7 million: elective surgery infrastructure.
- $8 million: "flexible funding'' for emergency department, elective surgery and sub-acute.
Aged Care: $12 million
- $2 million: expanding "multiple-purpose'' services in aged care.
- $4 million: to cover the cost of so-called bed blockers - patient stuck in hospital beds waiting for bed in a nursing home.
- $1 million: reform roles and responsibilities in the Home and Community Care scheme.
- $1 million: one-stop shop for people needing information and access to aged care.
- $2 million: no-interest loans to open aged care beds.
- $2 million: improve access to GPs and primary health care in nursing homes.
- $40,000: strengthen investigation and handling of aged care complaints.
- $300,000: protect nursing home residents' savings.
Training more doctors, nurses and allied health professionals: $10 million
- $5 million: general practice training places.
- $2 million: places for junior doctors to experience general practice for a year.
- $2 million: train specialists.
- $100,000: clinical training scholarships for allied health students.
- $100,000: rural locum scheme for allied health professionals.
Mental health: $3 million.
Primary care: $7 million to coordinate care for people with diabetes.
Growth funding: $248 million from 2014-15 to 2019-20.
Published 24.04.2010
Danielle Cronin is political correspondent for The Canberra Times - a daily newspaper published in Australia's capital city.
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